Football on the Fringe: The Path to Glory Takes Shape
The BCS Standings came out this week for the first time, and the non-BCS leagues have more contenders in the top 20 than I can ever remember. Boise State is at a tenuous #4, with TCU lurking at #8, and 3 more teams just below but in the top 20. I’m mixing things up this week on the Fringe, with a slightly abbreviated version. Let’s go:
BCS Buster Watch
| Team | BCS Rank | Coaches Poll Rank (Points) | Harris Poll Rank (Points) | Record | This Week | Key Victories |
| Boise State | 4 (.808) | 5 (1153) | 5 (2289) | 7-0 | at Hawaii | Oregon, Fresno State |
| Boise State got no help from Tulsa, who just turned around and lost to UTEP last night. But Virginia Tech has fallen away, thinning the group of one-loss teams that could jump Boise into the championship game. Florida and Texas both looked vulnerable- Boise isn’t out of this thing yet. | ||||||
| TCU | 8 (.714) | 7 (1069) | 8 (2015) | 6-0 | at BYU | Virginia, Clemson, Air Force |
| TCU is steadily gaining on Boise- the question now is whether they’ll start to jump the Broncos if they beat BYU this weekend. ESPN Gameday is going to be on hand for this one, which should be a good battle. | ||||||
| BYU | 16 (.299) | 16 (577) | 16 (1210) | 6-1 | TCU | Oklahoma |
| BYU is now into position to steal a BCS spot if they win out and a conference champ falls below them in the standings. Knocking off TCU this weekend would go a long way toward locking into the top 12. | ||||||
| Houston | 17 (.266) | 18 (421) | 18 (834) | 5-1 | SMU | Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Miss St. |
| Houston is back on the list since they’re right behind BYU with an outside chance at a big game. They still have the best resume in the non-BCS world, but that loss to UTEP is going to keep haunting them. | ||||||
| Utah | 18 (.251) | 20 (300) | 19 (627) | 5-1 | at San Diego St | Louisville |
| Utah, too, has quietly snuck back into position to sneak into the BCS with some big wins and some luck. Their problem is that, since they lost to Oregon, their schedule is much weaker than any of the other 4. | ||||||
| Key BCS Numbers: #1 Florida, .989; #3 Texas (in line for #2 eventually), .891; #10 Miami (lowest ranked team leading a BCS conference) .627 | ||||||
Paths to Glory:
Boise State: Best possible outcome: National Championship Game. Path: Win out to get to 13-0. Need 2 of 3 teams to lose: Alabama, Florida, Texas. Having Cincinnati and USC pick up losses would shore things up. Need to hold off charging TCU, Iowa as well. Alternate Ending: Texas and Florida/Alabama win out, or team mentioned jumps them, and Boise winds up in Sugar or Fiesta Bowls. Worse, same thing happens but TCU jumps and nobody extends second non-BCS bid, play in minor bowl.
TCU: Best possible outcome: National Championship Game. Path: Win out, including BYU & Utah, to go 12-0. Need Clemson & Virginia to keep winning games to boost computer scores. Need the same teams as Boise to pick up losses. Need voters to decide TCU deserves it more and start ranking them ahead of Boise State. Alternate Ending: Same as Boise’s, but flip the teams around.
BYU: Best possible outcome: BCS Bowl. Path: Win out, to go 11-1. Easy way: Miami, Georgia Tech, and Virginia Tech all pick up another loss so that the ACC champion is below them in the final poll. Cincinnati could fall that far with one loss to a bad team as well. Would need Boise State to stumble as well, because a one-loss BYU is not too likely to get an at-large bid over a big 6 school.
Houston: Best possible outcome: BCS Bowl. Path: Win out, including conference championship game, to go 12-1. Need BYU, TCU, and Boise to take losses, but superior strength of schedule could get them past any of them if they all have 1 loss. Need Okie State, Texas Tech, and Mississippi State to pick up some wins.
Utah: Best possible outcome: BCS Bowl. Path: Win out, to go 11-1. All teams above need at least one more loss, two would be better. Need lots of BCS teams around and above them to lose once or twice. Utah’s schedule is terrible this year, giving voters little incentive to push them into the top 12 or 16 and ahead of any league champions. They’ll need a lot of luck, but beating BYU and Utah will help.
Game of the Week
TCU at BYU, 7:30 PM, Versus- Biggest game that almost nobody can see. Bummer. The MWC’s decision to join up with Vs. instead of ESPN could cost them millions if TCU falls short of Boise just because nobody saw them play. ESPN Gameday is in Provo for this one.
Non-BCS Top 25
Sorry this is a short week- I hate to make excuses, but I am completely jammed up this week. Next week we’ll hopefully have a little better breakdown of the conference races and that sort of thing. But maybe you’re tired of reading my 2000 word epics, so maybe this is good for all of us.
| Record | This Wk | Last Wk | ||
| 1 | Boise State | 7-0 | at Hawaii | bye |
| 2 | TCU | 6-0 | at BYU | d. Colorado State |
| 3 | BYU | 6-1 | TCU | d. San Diego State |
| 4 | Houston | 5-1 | SMU | d. Tulane |
| 5 | Idaho | 6-1 | at Nevada | d. Hawaii |
| 6 | Utah | 5-1 | Air Force | d. UNLV |
| 7 | Central Michigan | 6-1 | at Bowling Green | d. Western Michigan |
| 8 | Navy | 4-2 | Wake Forest | d. SMU |
| 9 | Air Force | 4-3 | at Utah | d. Wyoming |
| 10 | East Carolina | 4-3 | bye | d. Rice |
| 11 | Troy | 4-2 | North Texas | d. FIU |
| 12 | Ohio | 5-2 | Kent State | d. Miami (OH) |
| 13 | Southern Miss | 4-3 | Tulane | d. Memphis |
| 14 | Louisiana Monroe | 4-2 | at Kentucky | d. Arkansas State |
| 15 | Toledo | 4-3 | Temple | d. Northern Illinois |
| 16 | Northern Illinois | 3-3 | at Miami (OH) | Loss to Toledo |
| 17 | Tulsa | 4-3 | bye | Loss to UTEP |
| 18 | Marshall | 4-3 | UAB | Loss to West Virginia |
| 19 | Temple | 4-2 | at Toledo | d. Army |
| 20 | SMU | 3-3 | at Houston | Loss to Navy |
| 21 | Wyoming | 4-3 | bye | Loss to Air Force |
| 22 | Louisiana Lafayette | 4-2 | Florida Atlantic | d. Western Kentucky |
| 23 | Nevada | 3-3 | Idaho | d. Utah State |
| 24 | Middle Tennessee State | 3-3 | Western Kentucky | Loss to Miss State |
| 25 | UTEP | 3-4 | bye | d. Tulsa |
Next time on the Fringe: hopefully I won’t half-ass it, since there’s actually some good stuff coming up in the next couple weeks that don’t involve just those 5 schools.
Tags: bcs buster, Football on the Fringe, lowercase, who wants a taste of 17 million dollars?
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Domestics
ailanthus altissima
On Utah – I can’t see Louisville as a key victory. Kragthorpe is not a good fit for the program (he hasn’t seen a lot of success there) and even with Justin Burke (a solid QB), they’re scraping the bottom of the Big East. I would count Utah out of it – one big loss and a lot of small wins won’t put them up in the same league as BYU or Boise State.
lowercase
I left Utah in there since they’re still mathematically in the hunt, but realistically, you’re most likely right. And Louisville isn’t much of a quality win, but it’s the best they have. Their argument, though, will be that Oregon is a pretty good loss. Otherwise, their schedule is junk. Even so, they only need to move up into the top 16 (if everybody else on my list falters, they will) and then have the ACC continue to mangle each other, and they’ll meet the requirement.
GoalieLax
Navy is 5-2