The BCS Standings came out this week for the first time, and the non-BCS leagues have more contenders in the top 20 than I can ever remember.  Boise State is at a tenuous #4, with TCU lurking at #8, and 3 more teams just below but in the top 20.  I’m mixing things up this week on the Fringe, with a slightly abbreviated version.  Let’s go:

BCS Buster Watch

Team	BCS Rank	Coaches Poll Rank (Points)	Harris Poll Rank (Points)	Record	This Week	Key Victories
Boise State	4 (.808)	5 (1153)	5 (2289)	7-0	at Hawaii	Oregon, Fresno State
Boise State got no help from Tulsa, who just turned around and lost to UTEP last night. But Virginia Tech has fallen away, thinning the group of one-loss teams that could jump Boise into the championship game. Florida and Texas both looked vulnerable- Boise isn’t out of this thing yet.
TCU	8 (.714)	7 (1069)	8 (2015)	6-0	at BYU	Virginia, Clemson, Air Force
TCU is steadily gaining on Boise- the question now is whether they’ll start to jump the Broncos if they beat BYU this weekend. ESPN Gameday is going to be on hand for this one, which should be a good battle.
BYU	16 (.299)	16 (577)	16 (1210)	6-1	TCU	Oklahoma
BYU is now into position to steal a BCS spot if they win out and a conference champ falls below them in the standings. Knocking off TCU this weekend would go a long way toward locking into the top 12.
Houston	17 (.266)	18 (421)	18 (834)	5-1	SMU	Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Miss St.
Houston is back on the list since they’re right behind BYU with an outside chance at a big game. They still have the best resume in the non-BCS world, but that loss to UTEP is going to keep haunting them.
Utah	18 (.251)	20 (300)	19 (627)	5-1	at San Diego St	Louisville
Utah, too, has quietly snuck back into position to sneak into the BCS with some big wins and some luck. Their problem is that, since they lost to Oregon, their schedule is much weaker than any of the other 4.
Key BCS Numbers: #1 Florida, .989; #3 Texas (in line for #2 eventually), .891; #10 Miami (lowest ranked team leading a BCS conference) .627

Paths to Glory:

Boise State: Best possible outcome: National Championship Game.  Path: Win out to get to 13-0.  Need 2 of 3 teams to lose: Alabama, Florida, Texas.  Having Cincinnati and USC pick up losses would shore things up.  Need to hold off  charging TCU, Iowa as well. Alternate Ending: Texas and Florida/Alabama win out, or team mentioned jumps them, and Boise winds up in Sugar or Fiesta Bowls.  Worse, same thing happens but TCU jumps and nobody extends second non-BCS bid, play in minor bowl.

TCU: Best possible outcome: National Championship Game.  Path: Win out, including BYU & Utah, to go 12-0.  Need Clemson & Virginia to keep winning games to boost computer scores.  Need the same teams as Boise to pick up losses.  Need voters to decide TCU deserves it more and start ranking them ahead of Boise State.  Alternate Ending: Same as Boise’s, but flip the teams around.

BYU: Best possible outcome: BCS Bowl. Path: Win out, to go 11-1.  Easy way: Miami, Georgia Tech, and Virginia Tech all pick up another loss so that the ACC champion is below them in the final poll.   Cincinnati could fall that far with one loss to a bad team as well.  Would need Boise State to stumble as well, because a one-loss BYU is not too likely to get an at-large bid over a big 6 school.

Houston: Best possible outcome: BCS Bowl. Path: Win out, including conference championship game, to go 12-1.  Need BYU, TCU, and Boise to take losses, but superior strength of schedule could get them past any of them if they all have 1 loss.  Need Okie State, Texas Tech, and Mississippi State to pick up some wins.

Utah: Best possible outcome: BCS Bowl. Path: Win out, to go 11-1.  All teams above need at least one more loss, two would be better.  Need lots of BCS teams around and above them to lose once or twice.  Utah’s schedule is terrible this year, giving voters little incentive to push them into the top 12 or 16 and ahead of any league champions.  They’ll need a lot of luck, but beating BYU and Utah will help.

Game of the Week

TCU at BYU, 7:30 PM, Versus- Biggest game that almost nobody can see.  Bummer.  The MWC’s decision to join up with Vs. instead of ESPN could cost them millions if TCU falls short of Boise just because nobody saw them play.  ESPN Gameday is in Provo for this one.

Non-BCS Top 25

Sorry this is a short week- I hate to make excuses, but I am completely jammed up this week.  Next week we’ll hopefully have a little better breakdown of the conference races and that sort of thing.  But maybe you’re tired of reading my 2000 word epics, so maybe this is good for all of us.

		Record	This Wk	Last Wk
1	Boise State	7-0	at Hawaii	bye
2	TCU	6-0	at BYU	d. Colorado State
3	BYU	6-1	TCU	d. San Diego State
4	Houston	5-1	SMU	d. Tulane
5	Idaho	6-1	at Nevada	d. Hawaii
6	Utah	5-1	Air Force	d. UNLV
7	Central Michigan	6-1	at Bowling Green	d. Western Michigan
8	Navy	4-2	Wake Forest	d. SMU
9	Air Force	4-3	at Utah	d. Wyoming
10	East Carolina	4-3	bye	d. Rice
11	Troy	4-2	North Texas	d. FIU
12	Ohio	5-2	Kent State	d. Miami (OH)
13	Southern Miss	4-3	Tulane	d. Memphis
14	Louisiana Monroe	4-2	at Kentucky	d. Arkansas State
15	Toledo	4-3	Temple	d. Northern Illinois
16	Northern Illinois	3-3	at Miami (OH)	Loss to Toledo
17	Tulsa	4-3	bye	Loss to UTEP
18	Marshall	4-3	UAB	Loss to West Virginia
19	Temple	4-2	at Toledo	d. Army
20	SMU	3-3	at Houston	Loss to Navy
21	Wyoming	4-3	bye	Loss to Air Force
22	Louisiana Lafayette	4-2	Florida Atlantic	d. Western Kentucky
23	Nevada	3-3	Idaho	d. Utah State
24	Middle Tennessee State	3-3	Western Kentucky	Loss to Miss State
25	UTEP	3-4	bye	d. Tulsa

Next time on the Fringe: hopefully I won’t half-ass it, since there’s actually some good stuff coming up in the next couple weeks that don’t involve just those 5 schools.

Tags: bcs buster, Football on the Fringe, lowercase, who wants a taste of 17 million dollars?
Categories: Domestics

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