With eight weeks down and only six to go, most teams have turned their attention to winning conferences or just getting bowl eligible.  But the biggest drama is still at the very top- TCU has jumped Boise State in the BCS rankings, based on a big gap in the computer polling.  And I am on board with the change for two reasons- the main one is that TCU has played the better schedule.  Both teams are deserving of national attention, but if I have to pick one, I have to say that TCU is more deserving.  Clemson and BYU are just better wins than Oregon and Fresno State.  Boise’s best win is better than TCU’s, but their second best win is far below.  The next six weeks will be spent with both coaches trying to convince anyone that will listen that they deserve the shot at the bowls or even the title game.  But Boise needs to watch out for the buzzsaw that Nevada has become, and TCU has those gentlemen from Utah coming to town in a couple weeks.

It’s worth noting that analysts are now projecting both teams to go into the BCS anyway, and this would be an ideal scenario if both teams win out.  Seeing some more top ten teams pick up a second loss will help that happen, so thanks, Miami.  And now, on with the usual fringe rambling.

Last Week

TCU dispatched BYU in a blowout, 38-7, on the road and on “national” television (Versus).   Elsewhere, Navy beat Wake Forest to get to 6-2 on the year, Central Michigan beat Bowling Green to become the third 7 win team in the non-BCS universe, while Houston and Utah both picked up wins to stay in the BCS hunt.

Conference Races

East Carolina has a half-game lead over Marshall and Southern Mississippi in C-USA East, plus the tiebreaker over Marshall and a year-end game with Southern Miss yet to come.  Houston, Tulsa, SMU, and UTEP lead the west, and UTEP has the tiebreakers over both Houston & Tulsa.  Houston could go 11-1 and not actually make the conference title game.

Temple leads MAC East at 4-0, with Ohio and Kent State trailing at 3-1, while Central Michigan is trying to run away with the West, already at 5-0 before going non-conference this week.

Nevada is actually leading the WAC, at 3-0 and shredding everyone in their path.  Boise State is still at only 2-0, having finished their 5-0 non-conference run.  Idaho and Fresno State are lurking at 3-1.

TCU and Utah are now on a collision course to determine the Mountain West champion, although both teams have 5 more league games each.  BYU sits in at 3-1, and Wyoming leads the race for 4th at 2-1.

Finally, the Sun Belt could be on the line this very weekend, as 4-0 Troy welcomes in 3-0 Louisiana Monroe in fight for the outright lead in the conference and a clear path to the championship.  3 more teams wait in line at 2-1.

Have they won yet?

With two weeks since the last update, we’ve seen Florida Atlantic actually win two games, and Ball State won a battle of winless teams over Eastern Michigan last weekend.  We’re left with five teams, and they’re all proving that they are truly terrible.  None left on this list are scheduled to play each other, so each team has the opportunity to lose out.  And as if there were any doubt, these five are the first to be mathematically excluded from postseason play.

Team	Record	Score Margin
E Michigan	0-7	236-108
Miami	0-8	275-93
New Mexico	0-7	261-104
Rice	0-8	364-119
WKU	0-7	293-115

BCS Buster Watch

Team	BCS Rank	Coaches Poll Rank (Points)	Harris Poll Rank (Points)	Record	This Week	Key Victories
Boise State	7 (.775)	5 (1152)	5 (2273)	7-0	San Jose State	Oregon, Fresno State
Boise State got passed in the BCS Polls this week, but not because they got moved down substantially. They only lost one and 12 points in the two human polls, respectively. What’s happened is that the other big players have finished with the cupcakes and their schedules are beefing up.
TCU	6 (.789)	6 (1131)	7 (2119)	7-0	UNLV	Virginia, Clemson, BYU
TCU could yo-yo a bit in the rankings from here in. The bottom of the MWC is bad, and TCU hasn’t added UNLV and New Mexico into the computer formulas yet. But on the plus side, Utah is still out there for them.
Houston	18 (.308)	16 (554)	16 (1064)	6-1	Southern Miss	Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Miss St.
Houston’s BCS score improved, they went up in both human polls, and somehow moved down a spot in the BCS Standings. Pitt jumped a bunch of teams when they beat South Florida last week, including Houston, and Utah moved up big by beating Air Force.
Utah	16 (.316)	19 (403)	19 (834)	6-1	Wyoming	Louisville
I can’t figure out exactly why an OT win over Air Force is worth so much more to the computers when Utah has not played nearly the schedule that Houston has. But for now anyway, Utah is in the crucial top 16, and if Boise falls and Utah beats TCU, a BCS bowl may await.
Key BCS Numbers: #1 Florida, .973; #3 Texas (in line for #2 eventually), .893; #11 Georgia Tech (lowest ranked team leading a BCS conference) .589

This Week

Games of the Week

1:00 Southern Miss at Houston (CSS). Southern Miss has been a little up and down so far, and hasn’t pulled off a big upset, but I expect them to give Houston at least a decent game.  Other Games:  Akron at Northern Illinois (Noon, regional TV), SMU at Tulsa (2 PM, no tv)

4:00: Air Force at Colorado State (Mtn)- CSU went 3-0 before falling to the MWC’s big 3, and then San Diego State last weekend.  Salvaging the season would start with an upset of Air Force at home.  Other games: Arkansas State at Louisville (3:30), SJSU at Boise State (3:00),  Temple at Navy (3:30 CBSC), UAB at UTEP (3 PM, no TV)

8:00: Wyoming at Utah (Mtn)- Look, there’s nothing good on for non-BCS games on TV this week.  But Wyoming has played pretty well this year, and Utah has looked vulnerable at times.  The MWC big 3 are running out of chances to get upset, but this is one of them.  Other evening games: Louisiana Tech at Idaho (5 PM), Louisiana Monroe at Troy (6 PM, no TV)

Off-Night Games

Sunday: Marshall at UCF, 8:15 PM ESPN. It’s this or Panthers at Cardinals in the NFL.  Solid chance that this game is better.  Marshall’s in a big messy tie for the division lead, while UCF is still angling for bowl eligibility.  Marshall and UCF’s rivalry has been building slowly for 7 or 8 years now, and this is the first time in a while that one of the two hasn’t been terrible.

Tuesday: Bowling Green at Buffalo, 7 PM, ESPN2. As much as I’d like to convince you that this one is going to be a barn burner, well, the MAC & ESPN guessed wrong about this one.  Both teams are mired in diappointing seasons, with both teams coming in at 3-5.  A big win on national television could spark a late season push for a bowl game, but that’s a a tough path for either team from here.

Non-BCS Top 25

		Record	This Wk	Last Wk
1	TCU	7-0	UNLV	d. BYU
2	Boise State	7-0	San Jose State	d. Hawaii
3	Houston	6-1	Southern Mississippi	d. SMU
4	Utah	6-1	Wyoming	d. Air Force
5	Central Michigan	7-1	at Boston College	d. Bowling Green
6	Navy	6-2	Temple	d. Wake Forest
7	BYU	6-2	bye	Loss to TCU
8	Nevada	4-3	Hawaii	d. Idaho
9	Idaho	6-2	Louisiana Tech	Loss to Nevada
10	East Carolina	5-3	bye	d. Memphis
11	Troy	5-2	Louisiana Monroe	d. North Texas
12	Southern Miss	5-3	at Houston	d. Tulane
13	Temple	5-2	at Navy	d. Toledo
14	Northern Illinois	4-3	Akron	d. Miami (OH)
15	Louisiana Monroe	4-3	at Troy	Loss to Kentucky
16	Ohio	5-3	at Ball State	Loss to Kent State
17	Toledo	4-4	at Miami (OH)	Loss to Temple
18	Tulsa	4-3	SMU	Loss to UTEP
19	Marshall	4-2	at UCF (Sunday)	d. UAB
20	Wyoming	4-3	at Utah	bye
21	Middle Tennessee State	4-3	at Florida Atlantic	d. Western Kentucky
22	Air Force	4-4	at Colorado State	Loss to Utah
23	Fresno State	4-3	Utah State	d. NM State
24	UTEP	3-4	UAB	d. Tulsa
25	UCF	4-3	Marshall (Sunday)	d. Rice

That’s all I’ve got this week- and remember, if you’re with me and rooting for chaos in the BCS, go Oklahoma State and Georgia!  Your Liquid Lunch should be along shortly.

Tags: bcs busters, Boise State, Football on the Fringe, Houston, lowercase, nevada, TCU, Utah
Categories: Domestics

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