Let’s face it: we know how this is going to play out.  Texas is going to play an SEC school in the title game.  Iowa will probably lose one, same for Cincinnati.  TCU and Boise State will probably both be given spots in BCS games.  The BCS apologists will get to scream that the system works, and look how fair it is for the mid-majors too!  If either of them lose in a BCS game, then we’ll hear how they didn’t belong there anyway, and we’ll go back to making sure non-BCS schools never get much higher than 15th in the polls next time.

If you read a lot of the national college football writers, there is a palpable, inexplicable disdain for non-BCS schools.  Look at the venom with which some of them are blasting anyone who still thinks Boise State should be above Oregon in the standings.  I know their argument, and while I don’t agree with it, it’s understandable- but they are MAD about it out there, which makes no sense to me.  Nobody was nearly this outraged about the Texas/Oklahoma situation last year, and Texas arguably got shafted much worse than Oregon might this year- and neither team is going to the title game regardless, so the stakes are a bit lower too.

If we accept that a playoff is not going to happen any time soon, I still think that there is a way to make this thing fair for everybody over the next decade or so.  It’s time that we do away with the separation between the Big 6 and the non-BCS leagues.

My plan is simple and relatively uncreative.  Expand the BCS, and let all the conference title winners go to one.  The immediate reaction to something like this is always that nobody wants to see Troy on New Year’s Day and they don’t compare to the winner of a power conference.  And you’re partly right.  But the reason that power conference teams are better, is that they’re in a power conference. If you look at the massive inequity in BCS revenue distribution, it becomes very clear how and why a team that earns an extra 1-2 million dollars per year, plus the exposure, can become a stronger program over time than a school with a smaller athletics budget than Urban Meyer makes in 6 games.

USF is the perfect case study for eliminating the money barrier.  They played their first season in 1997 and spent four years in 1-AA.  They broke into 1-A in ‘01, spent two years as an independent and then joined C-USA for 2003 and 2004.  However, in the fall of 2003, it was announced that USF would be joining the Big East in 2005, so they then had that window to recruit players with the offer of a BCS bowl or even a national championship- something that can’t be promised to a C-USA recruit.    Then, of course, the money comes flowing in, so USF could start building the facilities they needed to compete at a BCS level.  And just like that, USF is beating the West Virginias and Auburns of the world.  Also, I hate them.

If I were in charge, but forbidden from implementing a playoff, we’d roll this out over time, to let the weaker non-BCS conferences build strength- they’d get the money, but not the bowl bids right away.  I think you add three bowls the mix (you could choose or rotate among Citrus, Outback, Cotton, Liberty, and Sun, for example), giving you 7 bowls plus the championship, 16 slots.  The first couple years, you guarantee BCS bids to the top two ranked champions from the current non-BCS leagues, then the top 3, top 4, then all five a few years from now.  Plenty of room left for your at-larges, and a lot more equitable once the money starts flowing to everybody.  Now, back to reality.

Last Week

Games of the Week

Houston 50, Southern Miss 43- An epic back & forth battle, although one that suggests that Houston’s defense has not improved much since UTEP hung 58 on them a while ago.  Houston is still rolling, but there are a couple games that are still lose-able yet for the Coogs.

Air Force 34, Colorado State 16- While this game would have been a toss-up regardless, Colorado State’s freefall has been spectacular and mildly terrifying- they beat Colorado and Nevada in the first three weeks, but haven’t won since.  Tough road for a team that had to be eyeing a 9-3 season after their non-conference start.

Utah 22, Wyoming 10- As expected, the Cowboys continue to be a thorn in the side of ranked teams.  The slow paced win for the Utes cost them a few votes from what I’ve seen since then.

Other Notables

Temple 27, Navy 24- I mocked Temple gleefully in the early going, since they were supposed to be so improved this year, but went out and lost to 1-AA Villanova.  Turns out Villanova is now 7-1 and pretty good, but still.  Since their week 3 loss to Penn State, Temple hasn’t lost, mopping up in the MAC and now dispatching a stout Navy team, who had been on a win streak of their own.  Temple is now on the very short (finally) list of favorites to win the MAC.

Idaho 35, Louisiana Tech 34- Idaho bounced back from their throttling at Nevada by escaping with one at home.  Down 34-21 seconds into the 4th quarter, Idaho took this one with a last minute touchdown.

Bowling Green 30, Buffalo 29- This trend of off-night games not getting exciting until the fourth quarter continues (although I missed most of the first three this time).  Bowling Green continues to light it up through the air, and like Idaho and UCF this week, won the game in the last minute.

Others- UCF did beat Marshall in the last minute, SMU stomped Tulsa and now leaves us to wonder if Tulsa will even be bowl eligible, Miami OH got its first win against horrifically inconsistent Toledo, UAB beat UTEP- see Toledo for UTEP analysis.

Conference Races

Nevada still technically leads the WAC, by virtue of having played & won one game more than Boise State.  I do think Nevada is the team that presents the biggest obstacle for Boise from here on in, although that game is still a few weeks away.

Troy now holds what amounts to a 2 game lead over everybody in the Sun Belt after beating Louisiana Monroe this weekend, 42-21.  It’s probably safe to make your New Orleans hotel reservations, Troy fans.

The Mountain West still hinges on Utah vs. TCU, which is now a little more than a week away.  Utah does have BYU still out there too, so there remains a possibility of a 3 way tie at 7-1, but I don’t think it’s going to come to that.

Temple and Kent State still control their own destiny in the MAC East division, and Ohio mostly does too.  Temple has both Kent State and Ohio in the last two weeks of the season, and the division will be decided then, presuming each team wins their other games to get to that point.

Central Michigan leads the West, but Northern Illinois can take it if they win out, including a season finale against CMU.  In fact, it’s very possible that we’ll have a MAC semi-final weekend featuring NIU vs. CMU and Ohio vs. Temple on the same day, with the winners meeting in Detroit for the big trophy.

East Carolina is in charge of C-USA East, with an effective two-game lead over everybody in the division except for Southern Miss and UAB.  Once again, if ECU and USM teams win their way to week 13, then their game that weekend should decide the division.  If not, it’s going to be a mess.

Houston is in command of the West for the first time this year, after UTEP fell to UAB this weekend.   Their rivalry showdown with Tulsa will be key for shoring up that lead, but I wouldn’t expect a loss there.

Have They Won Yet?

Miami Ohio is off the list!  And then there were four.  Rice holds the tentative title of Worst Team in America, having given up more points AND scored fewer than the other three in this bunch.

BCS Buster Watch

This Week

Games of the Week

Noon- UCF at Texas, Fox Sports Net- UCF is not going to beat Texas, I know this, you know this.  What UCF will do, is keep striking at Texas until they find the weakness, then try to exploit it.  That won’t be enough to beat them, but if Texas has a weakness, then UCF will show Kansas, Texas A&M, or the B12 North winner what it is.  UCF did this against Miami- six sacks on Jacory Harris, and Clemson beat the ‘Canes a week later.

2:30- Navy at Notre Dame, NBC- Last time I put a Notre Dame game here, Nevada got shut out.  Hopefully Navy can bounce back from their Temple loss and send the Domers packing for good.  There are worthy teams that need that place in the BCS.

Bonus afternoon game: 3:30: Army at Air Force, CBS College- This game has meaning to a lot of teams- CUSA picks up Army’s bowl slot if they don’t get to 6-6, plus Air Force isn’t bowl eligible yet either.  Service academy games are always compelling viewing, but the stakes are pretty high in this one.

7:30- Houston at Tulsa, CBSC- Houston is not above playing down to its competition, but Tulsa’s three 1-A wins are against teams with a combined record of 2-22.  The line right now is an astounding, shocking, unthinkable Tulsa -1.  Which means I will empty my centsports account on Houston, and Tulsa will in fact win.

10:30-Fresno State at Idaho, ESPNU- The race is on for second and third in the WAC, and both teams here have a chance.  If Idaho’s defense can find a little more backbone, this home game should be theirs, but it should be a nice game for the insomniac football fan.

Others to keep an eye on- BYU at Wyoming, 2 PM, Mtn, UL-Lafayette at Arkansas State, 3:30, CSS, TCU at SDSU, 4:00, Versus

Off-Night Games

We’ve got a bunch this week, including 3 tonight:

Thursday, 7:30, ESPN, Virginia Tech at ECU- ECU beat Va Tech last year on a neutral field, and now they have them at home.  ECU has one of the loudest, wildest stadiums in CUSA, and this should be a great atmosphere tonight.  Not sure if ECU can run with the Hokies, but I suspect they’ll give them a game.

Thursday, 7:30, ESPNU, Eastern Michigan at Northern Illinois- Worth checking on during commercials?  EMU is winless, and should be winless after tonight.  If not, Central Michigan should be coasting into Detroit with the division title by a mile.

Thursday, 7:30, espn360, Miami OH at Temple- The MAC just picked bad games for tonight, hard luck on their part.  Temple should roll, but then again, Miami is off the mark and could have some momentum.

Friday, 8 PM, ESPN2, Boise State at Louisiana Tech- La Tech has thrown the gates open wide, offering free admission to any college student in the state.  LSU fans, if they’re smart and have free time, should turn out and cheer for La Tech, since Boise stands ahead of them in the BCS standings as of now.  Not only that, but La Tech comes to Baton Rouge soon, and shocking the Broncos will boost LSU’s SOS as well.

Sunday, 8:30 PM, ESPN, Nevada at San Jose State- SJSU has had several close games this year, but only won two of them.  I’ll be very surprised if that changes, but this one’s worth a look in case Nevada’s offense is firing on all cylinders again this week.  If they are, they could win by 40.

Tuesday, 7 PM, ESPN2, Ohio at Buffalo- Buffalo is reduced to playing spoiler this year, and if they win this one, they’ll knock Ohio out of the conference title race, at least for now and probably for good.

Wednesday, 8 PM, Toledo at Central Michigan- Toledo has looked brilliant and awful on varying weeks this year.  If the good team comes back, then this could be a good game.  If not, it’s just another step in CMU’s march to the division title.

So yes, we have football every night from tonight until at least November 17th, and college football every day except next week, when you’ll be forced to watch NFL MNF if you need a ballgame.

Non-BCS Top 25

Holy crap that was long.  For my non-BCS league bowl projections and other updates, including a little more breakdown of some of those mid-week games as they get closer, check out the daily-ish Fringe site.   And let’s all say a thanks that at least baseball is over for like a week or two.

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Tags: Football on the Fringe, i say way too many nice things about usf here, lowercase, sorry two yellows but its another fixing college football post, too many words not enough pictures, wrote fast wrote long didn't proofread
Categories: Domestics

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