Strikeforce: Fedor vs. Rogers Event Preview (Last Call one post below)
Today has been an absolute nightmare. I’ve been looking forward to this day for months, and this past week I could think of little else than Fedor vs. Rogers. Last night I could barely sleep. Which made running a 5k this morning painful. Which made my immune system shit the bed. Which made me sick. Which meant I had to drive around for two hours, sick, trying to find a goddamn digital tv for someone to loan me because I’m poor and my tv is analog and no way am I paying the 54.99 that Best Buy want to rob charge me for a dtv converter.
I haven’t watched tv since June unless you want to count the show Glee on Hulu (no homo, swear), shitty live feeds for a shitty football team on my valiant but ultimately overmatched laptop, and UFC events at rowdy bars. This event needs to be watched at home, close to my bed in case all goes wrong and I need to curl up in a ball and weep myself to sleep. Given how this day has gone so far, it appears my MMA idol and the only non-potato-based mancrush in my existence is going to get KTFO’d in a few hours time and ruin this sport for me, and ruin life itself! And I’m too damn sick to properly articulate my current mental state, and I KNOW at least half you malicious bastards are going to laugh hysterically at me if Fedor loses.
God I wish one of you was here right now to slap the shit out of me. Wait a second…
/slaps shit out of self
//Takes deep breath…LET’S ROLL!
Strikeforce: Fedor vs. Rogers
Tonight, Live, on CBS 8pm CT
Tonight could seriously be the beginning of a major change in the world of MMA – the nascent emergence of a legit UFC rival…or it could help put a giant nail in the coffin of yet another MMA promotion. Tonight’s MMA card marks the CBS broadcast debut of both Strikeforce and Fedor Emelianenko. Strikeforce and CBS need this event to be a fighting and ratings success in order to continue to build their product. A Fedor loss, although fairly devastating for the promotion, will not hurt them as badly as a stinker of a show. If Fedor loses they can schedule a hyped rematch. If the four scheduled televised fights are awful and/or the ratings tank, Strikeforce will have nothing to build on for the next CBS event and their attempt to build a viable second US-based major MMA promotion will have already failed. This is it for them.
Although there are three other quality fights, including a middleweight title fight, all eyes in the MMA world will be watching to see if Brett Rogers can shock the world and take out the heavyweight king of mixed martial arts…
Fight Preview: Brett “The Grim” Rogers vs. Fedor “Last Emperor” Emelianenko
Brett Rogers
http://www.mma-core.com/videos/_Andre_Arlovski_vs_Brett_Rogers_Strikeforce?vid=10005218&tid=100
http://www.mma-core.com/videos/_Ron_Humphrey_vs_Brett_Rogers_Strikeforce?vid=10004430&tid=100
From: St. Paul, Minnesota
Age: 28
Height: 6′5″
Weight: 264lbs
Record: 10-0
Wins by: 9 (T)KOs, 1 Submission
Strengths: Elite punching power, solid Muay Thai (esp knees), size
Weaknesses: Inexperience, untested ground game
Fedor Emelianenko
http://www.mma-core.com/videos/_Fedor_Emelianenko_vs_Tim_Sylvia_HD?vid=10000957&tid=100
From: Russia
Age: 33
Height: 6′0″
Weight: 233
Record: 30-1 (1NC)
Wins by: 7(T)KOs, 16 Submissions, 7 Decisions
Losses by: 1(T)KO
Strengths: Everything
Weaknesses: Cuts fairly easily, just got married (indicating questionable judgment, a steadily-draining soul)
Analysis/Prediction: Brett Rogers has had one big fight in his career thus far, and he passed the test with flying colors by knocking out Andrei Arlovski in 22 seconds in their bout this June. Rogers is an enormous man with brutal punching power and deceptive quickness (other analysts talk about how slow he is – he is only slow relative to a fighter like Fedor). He can bring the pain with a quick KO, but he also is skilled in the clinch and able to effectively land knee strikes. His ground game has never truly been tested, partially because he avoids taking the fight there given the opportunity and partially because he hasn’t fought any ground fighters. He will almost certainly try to keep this fight standing unless he sees an opportunity for quick ground and pound.
Fedor has ruled the heavyweight division of MMA for the better part of a decade. His only career defeat in 30+ fights was due to a cut resulting from an illegal elbow in a tourney format where there had to be a winner (in normal rules the fight would have been scored a no-contest). He is a technical, powerful, and unbelievably quick striker, a skilled wrestler (honed in part by his competition in Sambo, the Russian national sport), and highly-skilled on the ground (this is a guy who chose to go to the ground with prime Big Nog in the fight linked above and absolutely dominated Nogueira).
Plain and simple, Brett Rogers’ sole hope for winning this fight is to land a solid punch or punches to Fedor’s head to score a KO. That’s not as impossible as many people believe – Rogers packs quite a wallop and as we saw in the Fedor/Arlovski fight, Emelianenko can be hit with a quick jab. In fact, I predict Rogers will go so far as to stun Fedor with a shot and perhaps even knock him down for the first time in Emelianenko’s storied career. However, eventually we should see both men on the ground – likely from a Fedor takedown but possibly from a misguided Rogers ground and pound attempt. Once that happens it’s only a matter of time before Emelianenko secures a Rogers’ limb, scores the submission victory, and reigns supreme. Fedor by submission, round 1.
Fight Preview: Jake Shields vs. Jason “Mayhem” Miller
Strikeforce Middleweight Title bout
Jake Shields
http://www.mma-core.com/videos/_Jake_Shields_vs_Paul_Daley_EliteXC_Heat?vid=10001851&tid=100
http://www.mma-core.com/videos/_Robbie_Lawler_vs_Jake_Shields_Strikeforce?vid=10005217&tid=100
From: San Francisco
Age: 30
Height: 5′11″
Weight: 170
Record: 23-4-1
Wins by: 3(T)KOs, 10 Submissions, 10 Decisions
Losses by: 1(T)KO, 3 Decisions
Strengths: Terrific wrestler, submissions, BJJ black belt, chin
Weaknesses: Lacks power
Jason “Mayhem” Miller
http://www.mma-core.com/videos/_Jason_Miller_vs_Kala_Hose_pt_1?vid=10004570&tid=100
(this is just the fighter entrances: Miller’s entrances deserve their own link)
http://www.mma-core.com/videos/_Jason_Miller_vs_Kala_Hose_pt_2?vid=10004571&tid=100
(the fight itself)
http://www.mma-core.com/videos/_Jason_Miller_vs_Falaniko_Vitale?vid=10003400&tid=100
From: North Carolina
Age: 28
Height: 6′1″
Weight: 185
Record: 22-6 (1NC)
Wins by: 4(T)KOs, 13 Submissions, 4 Decisions, 1 Other
Losses by: 1(T)KOs, 1 Submission, 4 Decisions
Strengths: Great wrestler, submissions, BJJ black belt, chin
Weaknesses: Lacks power
Analysis/Prediction: Despite the lack of relative name recognition endemic to non-UFC, non-heavyweight fighters, Shields is probably a top-5 fighter in MMA with regard to his BJJ skills. He put those skills on display in his last fight, a first round submission over Robbie Lawler via a beautiful guillotine choke. Shields hasn’t lost a fight in five years and in that time has faced much tougher competition than Mayhem Miller has.
Although technically proficient in striking, Shields lacks power and has been dominated at times in standup battles with quality strikers (see the linked Daley fight). However, Jake has the elite wrestling skills necessary to secure takedowns and dominate his opponents on the ground while looking for submissions.
Jason “Mayhem” Miller is best known these days as the host of MTV’s “Bully Beatdown”. By all accounts, his wacky demeanor on the show is not an act: he’s pretty much insane in real life as well. On this stage, likely the biggest in his life, we can expect Miller to entertain with gusto. Be sure to catch his entrance to the cage tonight.
In terms of MMA skills, Miller is very similar to Shields, just not quite as good. Mayhem is a great wrestler and skilled submission artist who engages in standup as a means for finding an opening for takedowns. He is a somewhat better multi-faceted striker than Shields, but doesn’t have the power necessary to finish this fight standing.
Given the fact that neither of these guys has much KO power in their arsenals, most of the striking in this bout will be to secure a tactical advantage leading to dominant ground position. The bulk of this fight should then play out in a technical display of wrestling and submission holds, and since Shields is better at both he should dominate. Miller is tough and resilient, so it’s likely that he will take a steady beating over multiple entertaining rounds until the ref calls a halt to the action. Shields by TKO, round 3.
Strikeforce: Fedor vs. Rogers Main Card Predictions
Gegard Mousasi over Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou
Mousasi is a rising star in MMA who displays the multi-dimensional skills and calm demeanor of his sometimes training partner, Fedor. Comfortable on the ground or standing, Mousasi’s precision striking and great footwork should be able to neutralize Soukoudjou’s powerful blitzkrieg style of striking, but Gegard’s true advantage in this fight is his ground game and he should take it there as soon as possible. Just a little over two years ago Sokoudjou’s victories over Ricardo Arona and Little Nog had people buzzing about his rising star, but he quickly faded with losses in 3 of his next 4 fights. Expect Sokoudjou’s slide to continue as he finds himself back fighting cans in Japan.
Fabricio Werdum over Antonio “Bigfoot” Silva
Strikeforce has stated that the winner of this fight is likely to face the Fedor/Rogers winner next. Werdum is a skilled BJJ submission expert who should be able to find an opening against the bigger but less-skilled Silva. Silva has great KO power but has displayed his talents against mediocre competition, while Werdum has defeated the likes of Brandon Vera, Gabriel Gonzaga, and Alistair Overeem. Although Bigfoot has a decent chance to overwhelm Werdum with strikes, Werdum’s track record against quality opponents is too good to overlook.
Thanks and enjoy the fights!
Tags: Brett Rogers, Fedor Emelianenko, mma, Strikeforce
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Old King Clancy
I can name at least one Pub writer that’s using a clip from Glee in his post this week. The same guy even cheered for a commercial for it at a sports bar.
Is that clip from the same Radio 1 session where they played “Keep the Car Running?”
monchhichi
I forgot Sue Sylvester. She is also my man crush.