With TCU down to one more hurdle, and Boise State clearing all their big ones, the question for the BCS is now whether or not two outsider teams can get in on the ten available BCS spots.  Right now, I think the chances are pretty good.  If they do both win out, and Boise is left out of a BCS bowl yet again, it might be the final nail in the coffin for the idea that bowl games are a reward for the athletes.

What we know for certain:

• Barring a huge upset, Texas will play the winner of the SEC championship game in the BCS Championship (2 spots).
• The winner of the Big 10 will play the winner of the Pac 10 in the Rose Bowl.  (2 spots)
• The Sugar Bowl will pick another SEC team, probably the loser of the Championship game (1 spot)
• The Big East and ACC will send teams somewhere (2 spots)
• The top rated non-BCS school will get an automatic bid (1 spot)

So right there, you have 8 of the 10 available BCS bids.  We now have to try to guess who will be contenders for the last two spots.  Let’s look at the BCS Top 16 as it stands now.

1. Florida- On track for BCSCG or Sugar Bowl
2. Alabama- On track for BCSCG or Sugar Bowl
3. Texas- On track for BCSCG
4. TCU- On track for BCS Automatic Bid- non-BCS
5. Cincinnati- On track for BCS Automatic Bid- Big East
6. Boise State- Vying for at-large.
7. Georgia Tech- On track for BCS Automatic Bid- ACC.  Will have to survive ACC CG.
8. LSU- blocked by rule allowing no more than 2 teams from each conference to take BCS bids.
9. USC- still alive for Pac-10 title, but in trouble.  Could vie for at-large.
10. Iowa- still alive for Big 10 title.  Could also vie for at-large.
11. Ohio State- still alive for Big 10 title.  Could also vie for at-large.
12. Pittsburgh- still alive for Big East title.  At-large chances slim but not nonexistent.
13. Oregon- still in control of Pac-10 race pending game with Arizona.  Loss there likely eliminates from at-large consideration
14. Miami- behind the 8-ball for ACC title, could be an at-large consideration.
15. Houston- too far behind at this point to make any real BCS noise.
16. Utah- could still surprise TCU, but won’t climb into BCS conversation anyway.

So when we pare that down to the at-large contenders, we really have Boise State, USC, Ohio State or Iowa, Pittsburgh or Cincinnati, and Miami.  Now, what will it look like if each team wins the games they’re supposed to but does not get one of the automatic bids.

• Boise State: 13-0, wins over Oregon, Fresno State, Idaho, Nevada.  Top 6 ranking in all the major polls.
• USC: 10-2, wins over Ohio State, Notre Dame.  Ugly loss to Oregon, also Washington.  Popular traveling team, will appeal to Fiesta bowl especially.
• Ohio State: not going to the Rose means they pick up a 3rd loss to Iowa, finish 9-3.  Win over Penn State.  Bad loss to Purdue, also USC.  Massive traveling fanbase.  Even with the boost in revenue from better ticket sales, I can’t see a 9-3 OSU, with a bad record in the bowls lately, being a more appealing team than BSU and/or USC from a national interest/TV ratings perspective.  I, for one, would not care about an Alabama vs. Ohio State Sugar Bowl.
• Iowa: if they don’t make the Rose, they’ve lost to OSU and will finish 10-2 if they get past Minnesota.  2 late losses hurt their appeal, and they’ll have plummeted in the polls, maybe even out of the top 15.  I think they are a very long shot to get a 2nd BCS bid if they lose to OSU.
• Cincinnati: 11-1.  If Pitt beats the Bearcats, BSU has reason to sweat, especially if it’s an exciting game.  Cincy plays an exciting, high-flying style this year that will make a good TV game and draw a decent crowd if it’s in Miami or New Orleans.
• Pittsburgh: 10-2.  Pitt has been sneaking under the national radar most of the year, which could hurt their BCS chances.  I haven’t seen them play enough to gauge their TV appeal, but I don’t think a big bowl is going to pick a 12th-ish Pitt over a top 6 Boise State.
• Miami: The Hurricanes should get to 10-2, pending their week 13 game at South Florida.  If they win their last three in impressive fashion, they could give Boise State pause.  I don’t think the other three bowls will be interested, but if the Orange Bowl has a chance to take UM, they might just do it.  On the flipside, Miami plays in that stadium every week and can’t even fill the lowest level, so picking the home team for the bowl may not sell as many tickets as they think.  They might also look pretty foolish doing so, although that hasn’t stopped bowls from making the money pick in the past.

So can Boise State get to a BCS bowl game? Certainly.  But it’s far from a lock.  If you’re rooting for Boise State, here are the outcomes you want to see:

• The easiest way is for Utah to beat TCU and give Boise State control of the automatic bid.  Otherwise, they’ll be more secure if
• Arizona and Oregon State beat Oregon, then
• USC beats Arizona.  USC wins the Pac-10 on tiebreaker over Arizona.  Only one BCS bid from Pac-10.
• Cincinnati beats Pittsburgh, only one BCS bid from Big East
• Ohio State beats Iowa, only one obvious BCS bid from Big 10
• South Florida (or anyone) beats Miami, taking them out of the mix.
• Oh, and Boise doesn’t lose a game.  That part’s important, and not a gimme yet with Idaho and Nevada still on the way.

If I had to pick right now, here’s how I think the BCS Selection process will play out, with the order they’ll chose if I’m reading it right:

• CG: Florida vs. Texas
• Sugar (replacing #1 Florida)- Alabama
• Fiesta (replacing #2 Texas)- TCU
• Orange: Georgia Tech (automatically assigned)
• Orange: Cincinnati
• Fiesta: USC
• Sugar: Boise State

Even though Alabama played non-BCS Utah there last year, I think the Sugar will take BSU this time, since they can sell plenty of tickets to Bama fans and set up a very appealing TV game, probably featuring #5 vs. #6 in some form.  I think the Orange could take Boise State, thereby sending Cincy to the Sugar.  BSU-Georgia Tech (or worse) won’t be the game Bronco fans want, but Cincinnati vs. Alabama could be a barnburner.  I’m penciling in Oregon vs. I Don’t Care for the Rose Bowl.

Of course, all this goes in the crapper if the teams in question lose a stupid game to Duke, UCLA, Texas A&M, etc.

Last Week in the non-BCS World

Games of the Week

Texas 35, UCF 3- This was a game where, in my opinion, UCF actually didn’t play that bad.  Texas just played like the juggernaut they can be, and the superior team just sorta trampled our C-USA cannon fodder.

Navy 23, Notre Dame 21- The Domers refused to go away and die late in this game, but it never really felt like Navy was going to lose in the last few minutes there.  Navy is now bowl eligible, and are locked into the Texas Bowl against a Big 12 team.

Houston 46, Tulsa 45- This was one of the wildest finishes of the year.  Houston is down 8 when they score with 25 seconds to go, but the two point conversion failed.  They recover the onside kick, advance on two quick pass plays, and send their kicker out for a shot 15 yards longer than his previous best.  And he nailed it.  So Houston stays alive for the title and Tulsa is still in danger of not getting bowl eligible.

Fresno State 31, Idaho 21- Fresno jumped all over the Vandals in the early going, and never looked back.  They are now quietly on a 5 game winning streak, bowl eligible, and making Boise and the WAC look better every week.

Other Notables

Akron 28, Kent State 20- Previously 1-7 Akron has essentially taken Kent State out of the MAC East race, although it’s still up in the air.

Tennessee 56, Memphis 28- Only notable because it was the last straw in Memphis, and coach Tommy West is officially out at the end of the year.

Troy 40, Western Kentucky 20- Troy inches very close to clinching, but the loss was the 17th straight for WKU, and coach David Elson was also given his walking papers on Monday.  He also will finish out the season.

BCS Buster Watch

See above.  Seriously, that’s all I got.

This Week

This week is a good one- do-or-die for TCU & Utah, and a big rivalry game in Potato Country.

Games of the Week

Noon: Houston at UCF, CBS College Sports: Hey, look, homer-boy put his school in for the second week!  No, seriously, it’s the best non-BCS noon game.  Houston brings their absurdly high-powered offense up against the best defense in C-USA for UCF’s homecoming.  However, Houston has a top 5 offense nationally, UCF’s is only 53rd.  Still, Houston does play down to its opposition, so this one could come down to the wire.

3:30: Idaho at Boise State, ESPNU: I want this one to be close and exciting, but I’m just not sure it will be.  Idaho’s pass coverage is really, really bad at times.  But the rivalry factor evens these games out sometimes, so I wouldn’t hand it to the Broncos just yet.

Bonus game/ticker watch- 4:00, Fresno State at Nevada.  Neither one of these teams has lost a game since September.  If Nevada survives, they could still upset Boise State and win the WAC.

7:30: Utah at TCU, 7:30, CBSC: ESPN is bringing the Gameday crew to Fort Worth for this one, even though they don’t have the game.  Utah hasn’t been blowing people out like TCU has, but they’re winning their games too.  Utah’s one loss this year is to Oregon, although they don’t have the schedule that our other top four non-BCS teams has played this year.

Off-Night Games

We’ve got a bunch this week, which I’ll theoretically be previewing in detail over at my site, but this is what you’ll be seeing-

Thursday- Ball State at Northern Illinois, 6 PM, ESPNU- NIU looking to stay alive in the MAC West race, lose and it’s all but over.

Thursday- Bowling Green at Miami Ohio, 6 PM, espn360- BGSU has a chance to finish 2nd in the East and make a bid for a bowl game, so this one will be important to them, if not too many others.

Friday- Temple at Akron, 8:30 PM, ESPNU- Akron just fouled up Kent State’s season, so Temple will be looking to avoid that fate, although I think it shouldn’t be a problem for the Owls.

Sunday- East Carolina at Tulsa- Tulsa nearly knocked off Houston this week, they’ll be looking to finish the job against ECU.  But if they lose (and they certainly could), they’re looking at 6 losses and no room for error in the last two weeks.

Wednesday- Buffalo at Miami Ohio, 6 PM, ESPNU- So yes, Miami & Ball State play twice before this column will appear again.  Strange.  Buffalo is sitting on 6 losses already, and is probably playing for pride, but Miami is definitely playing for pride, if anything.  This one could be less-than-entertaining, I’m afraid.

Wednesday- Central Michigan at Ball State, 8 PM, ESPN2- Odd to see two MAC games on head-to-head, but at least this one features a team still very much in the hunt.  CMU hasn’t lost a MAC game this year, and is on a collision course with Northern Illinois for a division final in the last week of the season.

Non-BCS Top 25

Not a lot of movement on the chart this week, since most of the teams, at least in the top half, picked up wins last weekend.  Better chance of some top 10 shuffling this week.

And that’s all there is to it.  Bottom line- great weekend, with legitimately good games involving the four best non-BCS teams happening on Saturday, so enjoy.

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Tags: BCS, bcs busters, Boise State, Football on the Fringe, homer alert, Houston, lowercase, proofread you moron, TCU, Utah
Categories: Domestics

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