If you watched TCU vs. Utah last weekend, or even saw the highlights afterward or on Sunday morning,  you saw a large handful of pundits and even more bloggers suggest that, just maybe, TCU was as good or even better than Texas.  Perhaps this was a reach, but perhaps not- their schedules are comparable (yes, really.  Sagarin has TCU at 48th and Texas at 50th) and TCU hasn’t been within 3 points of an opponent since a sub-20 degree game at Air Force.  Texas certainly hasn’t looked bad lately, but they also haven’t done anything to suggest that they’re far better than anyone around.

Of course, all this speculation and TCU’s massive win over then #16 Utah was met…with Texas still 100 points or more ahead of TCU in the polls.  Which isn’t surprising, given what we all know about how the polls work- pre-season polls are locked in, and nobody gets moved down until they lose, no matter how iffy they look or how strong a lower team is playing.  Unless they’re Boise State.  Bummer about that one, although if it can’t be settled on the field, TCU has earned their way ahead of BSU for now.

How much sense does it make, really, for polls to be demanded the day after the games are played?  To do a great job as a voter, you would have to be watching games from noon until 2 am every Saturday, then go straight to the TiVo for another 10 hours to catch up on the other matchups.  If the system had any interest in getting it right, polls would come out at the end of the week, after there’s time for voters to read, watch, and break down more games, instead of voting by box score.

But I suppose we all know that’s going not going to change any time soon, so lets look again at the bowl picture for our two heroes, TCU and Boise State.  Once again, TCU appears in the driver seat for the BCS automatic spot since they’re on pace to finish the season in the top 5, maybe the top 3.  The question now becomes whether or not Boise State, possibly #5 if they put the SEC-CG loser behind the undefeateds, will get snubbed.  The picture is still fluid, and we’ve got a new threat to their spot hovering out there.  Once again, we’re projecting two at-large seeds available to go to Boise State and one team, or just two of these teams.  Records are assuming they win out:

• Iowa, 10-2.  Still in the mix thanks to a large fanbase.  Two losses in their last three games, but pushed Ohio State to overtime without their star quarterback.  Drawbacks: Plodding Big 10 style not a TV darling right now.
• Pittsburgh, if they lose to Cincy, 10-2.  Beat Notre Dame fairly handily save for a late ND comeback.  Will have beaten a pretty good West Virginia team to stay in the mix.  Big East riding a surge of “Hey, they’re not bad” media sentiment, but hasn’t spread to general college football fanbase yet.  Drawbacks: aren’t known for traveling quite like the Big 10 or Big 12 crowds.
• Cincinnati, if they lose to Pitt, 11-1.  Possible future Notre Dame coach on the sidelines, getting a ton of national run this year.  High powered offense, good TV appeal.  Drawbacks: still mostly unknown team (only 5 years removed from CUSA), purists would rather see traditional team getting at-large spots, fanbase is dwarfed by the big boys.
• Oklahoma State, 10-2.  These guys have snuck onto the radar, but I’ve seen several pundits say that if they get through at 10-2, the Fiesta will take them as a replacement for Texas.  That would certainly throw a wrench into the works.  They have that same tv-friendly offense that gives Cincy a boost, with a bigger fanbase and a more nationally known name and storyline (I’m a Man!  I must be like 42 now!).  Will have to beat Oklahoma to get there.  Drawbacks: have been flying below the radar until recently, no signature wins since beating Georgia week 1.
• Penn State, 10-2.  Only because they’re Penn State and they’re eligible.  Travel like gangbusters.  Would be selected as a final nail in the coffin of sportsmanship over cash.  Drawbacks: Have lost to the two quality teams they play.  Boring as hell to watch on TV.

In my opinion, the only team that could have an argument of going in over Boise State, in on-the-field football terms only, might be a one loss Cincinnati.  Unfortunately, the bowls will make a business decision, not a sporting one, and at the moment I’m much less confident about BSU’s chances to get a bid than I was last week.  Worse yet, they’re probably going to get stuck playing a very disappointing opponent in the Humanitarian bowl (which pairs the WAC champ against a 4th or 5th team from the MWC- could be Wyoming).  But I tell you this- if they pick Penn State over Boise, I will boycott the whole damn thing, championship game and all.  I’ll read about TCU’s bowl the next day on some website not affiliated with the BCS.

So what else is going on out there?

Last Week

Games of the Week

UCF 37, Houston 32- UCF figured out the way to stop Houston’s offense- keep them off the field.  Houston struck early and went up 10-0, but they only ran four plays from scrimmage in the second quarter, due to two long UCF drives and a Houston kickoff return for a TD.  Houston’s defense wore down and the Coogs turned it over 5 times, including one that set up a 6 yard score for UCF to put the game away.  Houston almost pulled off another miracle comeback, but came up short on an onside kick with ten seconds on the clock.

Boise State 63, Idaho 25- Idaho had gotten a lot of press and was thought by many to be the last team with a chance to upset BSU, so the Broncos took the opportunity to light up the scoreboard while Iowa and USC were losing.  They now have a virtual off-week, against lowly Utah State, where they’ll need to win by 40+ again to keep the momentum going.  After that comes Nevada, who still hasn’t lost since September and beat Fresno State comfortably last weekend.

TCU 55, Utah 28- Utah’s coach called TCU the best team he’s ever coached against, including last year’s Alabama team.  Utah looked like they might fight along in this one, and it was 7-7 fairly well into the first quarter, but then TCU just opened up and knocked Utah all over the field.  Utah will get a chance to save their season (as if 9-3 would be a huge disappointment, but for some Utah fans, it might be) against BYU in a couple weeks.

Conference Outlooks

The Sun Belt is firmly in Troy’s hands.  They only need to win one of their last two against FAU and Louisiana Lafayette and another Belt title is theirs.

The Mountain West is similarly locked in for TCU now.  They obviously have bigger ambitions, but the league crown is theirs if they win one against Wyoming or New Mexico.  But watch out, since New Mexico’s coach is being “mentored” by Tony Dungy in an obvious job-saving attempt, since there aren’t a lot of coaches who can punch out staffers, go 0-12, and still save their jobs.

The WAC is down to a one game final- Nevada at Boise State, November 27.  That is, assuming they get past New Mexico State and Utah State, respectively.  And they will.

Conference USA has a lively race to the finish.  Southern Methodist currently has the lead in the west, and if they can survive a trip to Marshall and a game against no-longer-winless Rice, they’ll host the conference championship.  If they lose one, Houston goes to the title game, but may not get it at home.  In the East, East Carolina is in the drivers seat, but if Southern Miss or UAB win out, both including games with ECU, the title could be theirs.  UCF is still alive but needs a very specific combination of upsets to get through.

The MAC is realistically down to four teams as well.  Central Michigan and Northern Illinois in the West, and Temple and Ohio in the east.  Both pairs will play each other on the final day.  But here’s the thing- NIU and Ohio play on Saturday, and the loser will most likely be eliminated from the division race, unless their division counterpart manages to lose also.  If NIU loses, Central Michigan will clinch the title as they’re now at 7 conference wins.  If Ohio loses, Temple clinches the division by beating Kent State at the same time.

This Week

Games of the Week

This week is an ugly one across the college football universe, as has been pointed out by a lot of people.  There are no games between two top 25 teams anywhere.  There’s literally nothing on in the noon hour for non-BCS stuff, unless you want to watch FIU get murdered by the Gators, and even that is only on PPV.

2:00- TCU at Wyoming, Mtn- Wyoming isn’t an easy place to play- it’s far from everywhere, and the weather always has a good chance to suck.  Forecast right now though is for 43 and clear, which isn’t bad for late November on the Front Range.  It would be a huge upset if the Cowboys steal the win, but it might be closer than you think, too.

Northern Illinois at Ohio goes at 2 also, but is currently not slated for any TV.  Great, you have a league title deathmatch game, and nobody can see it.

3:30- Air Force at BYU, CBS College- BYU appears to be sleepwalking its way to the Utah game, and could have lost to that New Mexico team described above last week, escaping with a 5 point win.  They’re back in their own confines this week, but Air Force has been playing well and has a very legit chance to go into Provo and come home with a win.

7:30- Tulsa at Southern Miss, CBSC- Tulsa has been a huge disappointment this year, especially last week when as a UCF homer I desperately needed them to upset ECU and they rolled over and played dead.  Jerks.  Southern Miss does need this game to stay in the title hunt, while Tulsa needs it to have any hope of going to a bowl game this year.

I told you it was a weak slate.  But just wait until next week, it’s so much better.  If you need to take a weekend off from college football, now is your time, because the awesome is coming.  Unless they pick Penn State for the BCS.

Off-Night Games

The MAC is slowing down from their November-long onslaught of weeknight games, gearing up for a huge Thanksgiving Friday league finale.  But they do have a game going next week just for fun, and if you want to see Boise State beat up on (one of at least three different groups of) Aggies, we’ve got that for you too.

Friday, 5:30 PM- Akron at Bowling Green, ESPNU: Bowling Green is trying to continue its run to Bowl Eligibility and the all important 7-5 record, so they do have a lot to play for.  Akron has disrupted one season already and would love to bag another one.

Friday, 7 PM- Eastern Michigan at Toledo: Not picked for national TV, and for good reason.  Eastern Michigan is still one of three winless teams, while Toledo is already on six losses as well.

Friday, 9:30 PM- Boise State at Utah State, ESPN2: While technically a national TV game, this is an awful time slot for a team desperate to get attention from the big bowls.  Winning by less than 30 will be a disappointment, less than 20 a shock.

Tuesday, 7 PM- Ball State at Western Michigan, ESPN2: What should have been a huge game for the West division race, this will be the finale to two disappointing seasons.  If they win Western goes to 6-6 and can hope that their star QB, Dan LeFevour, might have enough cachet to merit an at-large bid in a bowl that needs help, but Ball State is coming off a 12-0 regular season in 2008, followed by ten losses already this year.

Non-BCS Top 25

Just like when they lost to UTEP, Houston creates the biggest conundrum for sorting these things out.  Fact of the matter is, they’re still one of the best teams in this universe, so they aren’t dropping too far on my list.

Next week, the Fringe will probably appear a day early, if I can get it together in time, since hopefully you lot won’t be spending Thanksgiving day in front of your computers- you should be in front of your TVs!  But we’ll check in again on Boise’s BCS hopes and see how things are shaking out in the conferences again.

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Tags: bcs busters, Boise State, college football, Football on the Fringe, lowercase, TCU
Categories: Domestics

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