TUF 10 Finale Preview/The Week in MMA – Last Call Below

TUF 10 Fight Preview: Jon “Bones” Jones vs. Matt “The Hammer” Hamill

Jon Jones

http://www.mma-core.com/videos/_Jon_Jones_vs_Jake_O_Brien_UFC_100?vid=10005565&tid=100

http://www.mma-core.com/videos/_Jon_Jones_vs_Andre_Gusmao_UFC_87?vid=10001039&tid=100

From: Rochester, New York
Age: 22
Height: 6′4″
Weight: 205lbs
Record: 9-0
Wins by: 5(T)KOs, 2 Submissions, 2 Decisions

Strengths: Elite athleticism, wrestling, reach, unorthodox style
Weaknesses: Inexperience

Matt Hamill

http://www.mma-core.com/videos/_Matt_Hamill_vs_Mark_Munoz_UFC_96?vid=10003726&tid=100

http://www.mma-core.com/videos/_Matt_Hamill_vs_Reese_Andy_UFC_92?vid=10002617&tid=100

From: Ohio
Age: 33
Height: 6′2″
Weight: 205lbs
Record: 7-2
Wins by: 6(T)KOs, 1 Decision
Losses by: 1(T)KO, 1 Decision

Strengths: Wrestling, power, takedown defense, experience
Weaknesses: Quickness, he may have already reached his ceiling

It’s no coincidence that the UFC has scheduled Jon Jones to headline a fight card that will likely be watched by millions of people who want to watch Kimbo and the rest of the TUF 10 fighters: the UFC wants MMA fans to know who he is. They have big hopes for the 22-year-old, and thus far Jones has not disappointed. He last fought at UFC 100 (another UFC attempt at a showcase) and displayed some dazzling skills before submitting opponent Jake O’Brien. This fight marks a significant step up in competition against talented wrestler Matt Hamill.

Matt Hamill has for the most part in his career looked like a fighter poised to ascend into the upper tier of the light heavyweight ranks. His two losses were to Michael Bisping via a very controversial decision (ever notice that the controversial decisions in the UFC almost always are in favor of the fighter who has more potential to sell PPV’s?) and a KO loss to Rich Franklin that set the Hammer back a notch. Hamill is 33 and really needs to put on a strong showing in this fight to be relevant in the division.

This fight comes down to whether Jones ceiling is as high as people believe it to be. Hamill won’t back down. Both of these guys are aggressive, so expect Matt to move forward with heavy punches and look for opportunities to take Jones to the ground where he can smother him and GNP him. Jones, meanwhile, will likely look to implement his unorthodox striking and enormous reach to weaken Hamill and either score the KO or score take downs of his own. Hamill’s take down defense is terrific, primarily due to his strong base, but Jones should have the flexibility and strength to disrupt Hamill’s balance and wind up with top control. This is not a gimme fight for Jones but he is fast enough with his hands to win the striking battle and versatile enough to win the battle on the ground. Jones by TKO as his star continues to rise.

Complete TUF 10 Predictions

Roy Nelson vs Brendan Schaub

Nelson came into TUF 10 as the overwhelming favorite. Schaub is a former NFL player who has size, strength, great striking, and confidence. Although Nelson looked unimpressive at times en route to the TUF 10 finale, I think that’s more a case of rationing his energy. Despite his enormous belly, Nelson is the real deal: quality striking, a BJJ black belt, and battle-tested. While I think Schaub has much greater potential than Nelson, I think at this point in time Nelson’s experience will allow him to capitalize on Schaub’s mistakes to first take the fight to the ground and then score a submission. Nelson by Sub.

Frankie Edgar vs Matt Veach

The more-experienced and multi-talented Edgar should definitely win this fight. He has victories over Tyson Griffin, Sean Sherk, Hermes Franca, Jim Miller, and Spencer Fisher, among others. Edgar was originally scheduled to fight Kurt Pellegrino until Pelligrino had to withdraw due to injury. Veach is undefeated but raw, and was initially scheduled to fight on the undercard. Veach trains with Matt Hughes’ HIT SQUAD and you can see Hughes’ influence on Veach (as well as on Brian Foster, who just upset Brock Larson) in his fighting style, but he needs more seasoning before he can compete with a guy of Edgar’s caliber. Edgar by UD.

Rodney Wallace vs. Brian Stann

The ex-Marine Stann is known for his aggressive striking, while Wallace is a short, powerful wrestler. Expect the Greg Jackson-trained Stann to attempt to maintain distance, jump in, throw a flurry of punches, and gtfo of any clinch game. Wallace will of course look to shoot in for the takedown. What I noticed in the film study is Stann momentarily leaves his head up, still, and open to a counterstrike when he starts throwing bombs. The one video available on the web of Wallace shows he does have (largely-unused) power and the reflexes to step up in the pocket for effective counterstrikes. In an upset pick I’ll go with Wallace to land a counter that stuns Stann long enough to get him on the ground and finish him via ground and pound. Wallace by TKO.

Houston Alexander vs Kevin “Kimbo Slice” Ferguson

Once these guys make their way to the cage delay your bathroom and smoke breaks about 3 minutes because that’s all this fight should take. Two one-dimensional fighters who lack discipline and simply throw bombs will stand and trade punches until one guy gets caught and hits the canvas. Alexander has the edge in experience and should be able to end Kimbo’s UFC run here. I like Kimbo and I’d like to see him win this, but Alexander by KO.

Marcus Jones vs. Matt Mitrione

Two former NFL players go head-to-head in this fight. Jones is a powerful giant who has really good BJJ skills but undeveloped standup talent. Mitrione is a nutjob who has striking power but is raw and one-dimensional. Assuming Jones’ questionable chin withstands Mitrione’s punches, the fight should make its way to the ground where Jones scores the submission victory.

Justin Wren vs. Jon Madsen

This fight…meh. Madsen is a decent wrestler and that’s about it. Wren is a more-balanced fighter who almost beat Nelson in the TUF 10 prelims. Wren via TKO.

Darrill Schoonover vs. James McSweeney

Schoonover, whom Rampage calls “Titties” due to his flabby chest, is a solid wrestler who was seen as a legit threat to Nelson when TUF 10 began, but who never really delivered on the show. McSweeney is a kickboxing veteran with a bad attitude that far surpasses his limited MMA talent. Unfortunately, McSweeney by TKO.

Dennis Hallman vs. John Howard

Hallman’s claims to fame are his two submission wins over Matt Hughes. However, that was a very long time ago and Hallman hasn’t done anything of note for several years. I have no idea why the UFC signed him other than to take a very minor name away from Strikeforce and/or to face Hughes in a third fight. If Hallman wins this I expect him to face Hughes in April, but it’s unlikely he wins this. Howard is unremarkable but has decent power and should be able to avoid Hallman’s one strength (submissions) en route to a boring decision win.

Mark Bocek vs. Joe Brammer

Bocek has a quality ground game and is 3-2 in the UFC. Brammer has defeated a grand total of one fighter who is still over .500. Brammer also has a good ground game, but Bocek is the better fighter at this point. Bocek by UD.

*I’ll include the prediction results for UFC’s 105, 106 (I didn’t make picks but Bloody Elbow did), and the TUF 10 finale next week.*

MMA News and Notes

• In a bout certain to cause bloodshed, it’s being reported that Junior dos Santos will face wild man Gilbert Yvel at UFC 108. Yvel, perhaps best known for his fits of rage and beating up referees, is a striker with two of the most lethal hands in mixed martial arts. Dos Santos is a rising star who has great striking power of his own and should challenge for the UFC heavyweight title soon, provided he gets through Yvel.

• The downward spiral that is TUF 6 alum Jon Koppenhaver’s (known these days simply as “War Machine“) life has accelerated to breakneck speed. Not only has War Machine unleashed a series of extremely troubled tweets, but now he is the subject of a manhunt for allegedly attempting to strangle his girlfriend. This is in addition to reports that War Machine beat up several people at a recent porn industry party.

It has been a while since I last wrote a column (thanks to a broken computer). To touch on the two big UFC events since then…

• Randy Couture won a very controversial decision over Brandon Vera at UFC 105. Despite Vera landing the only significant strikes of the match, Couture’s ability to hold Vera against the cage was enough for the judges to score the win in The Natural’s favor. Every website I checked that provided live scoring by their writers scored the bout in Vera’s favor, and Joe Rogan called the judge’s decision a joke for the second consecutive UFC main event. To be fair, the fight was fairly close…but completely awful. AWFUL. Couture’s skills are clearly eroding. If the UFC pits him against elite LHW competition he will be destroyed. But fear not: Randy’s next fight will be a headlining bout against fellow UFC Hall-of-Famer and middle-aged wrestler Mark Coleman at UFC 109 in February.

As it stands, UFC 109 doesn’t inspire much in the way of excitement. The current list of combatants:

Randy Couture vs. Mark Coleman
Nate Marquardt vs. Chael Sonnen
Josh Koscheck vs. Paulo Thiago
Demian Maia vs. Dan Miller
Matt Serra vs. Frank Trigg
Rolles Gracie vs. Mostapha Al-Turk
Ronnys Torres vs. Melvin Guillard
Phillipe Nover vs. Robert Emerson

How in the hell is Al-Turk still in the UFC? It has to be so he can use his “can” ability to showcase a new Gracie.

• In the other recent headlining bout, Forrest Griffin won a split decision over Tito Ortiz at UFC 106. Griffin, coming off back-to-back losses including his infamous KO at the hands of Anderson Silva, was able to pull away in the third round to avenge his loss to Ortiz at UFC 59. Ortiz has now gone over three years since his last victory. If this fight failed to captivate you, you are not alone: PPV buys were way down for this card.

In other news from UFC 106:

• Josh Koscheck submitted Anthony Johnson to put himself in the mix for a title shot should he defeat Paulo Thiago at UFC 109.

• Jake Rosholt, known as a great wrestler and solid UFC prospect, was cut from the promotion following his loss to Kendall Grove at UFC 106. Rosholt went 1-2 in the promotion, with his lone victory coming via a choke of Chris Leben at UFC 102. He should be back after a couple victories.

• Brock Larson was also cut from the UFC following his UFC 106 loss to Brian Foster.

In Strikeforce news…

• Strikeforce has signed devastating kickboxer Melvin Manhoef to their promotion.

• Strikeforce: Evolution is set to take place December 19 with a very intriguing card…

CUNG LE (6-0) VS SCOTT SMITH (16-6)
JOSH THOMSON (16-2) VS GILBERT MELENDEZ (16-2) – MIDDLEWEIGHT CHAMPIONSHIP
RONALDO “JACARE” SOUZA (10-2) VS MATT “THE LAW” LINDLAND (21-6)
“RUTHLESS” ROBBIE LAWLER (16-5) VS Trevor Prangley
MUHAMMED “KING MO” LAWAL (5-0) VS Mike Whitehead

• Fedor interview

• Sporcle quiz: Name the UFC Champions.

Last but certainly not least, K-1 (kickboxing) held their World Grand Prix today. Notable competitors include Alistair Overeem, Badr Hari, and Semmy Schilt. I won’t tell you who won, but you can find coverage here and video here. (Listening to Japanese announcers is a trip.) If there is more interest in kickboxing than what I cover let me know…I’d say in the grand scheme of combat sports something like the K-1 Grand Prix outshines the TUF 10 finale.

Thanks and enjoy the fights.

Tags: brendan schaub, jon jones, Kimbo Slice, matt hamill, mma, monchhichi rodriguez, roy nelson, TUF 10, ufc
Categories: Domestics, Imports, Mixed Drinks

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