Football on the Fringe: Bowl Pick’em & Previews!
First things first- it’s time for my absolute favorite pick’em game of the year- takes about 10 minutes to set your picks and then we’ve got a month worth of fun. First, the pertinent info:
Start HERE
Group #: 36923
Password: phoenix
Once you get in, you’ll make straight up (no spread, just winners) picks for each bowl game this year. Then, you’ll assign confidence values to each game- 34 to the winner you’re absolutely sure of, down to 1 point for a game that you think really could go the other way. So the game winner may not just get the most games right, but they’ll put the right points on games that go their way.
Got it? Good. Now, lets look at the non-BCS teams in bowl games this week.
New Mexico Bowl
Wyoming (6-6) vs. Fresno State (9-4), Saturday, 4:30 PM, ESPN: Fresno State is steamrolling into this game, having won 7 of their last 8 after an iffy start. All-American RB Ryan Mathews leads the nation in yards per game, and will be looking to put on a show with the spotlight on him alone- draft questions are definitely swirling. Meanwhile, Wyoming is coming in off of a good season by their standards, and the best in several years- when you’re in a conference with TCU, BYU, and Utah, you’re basically forced to go 6-3 against everyone else, and that’s what the Cowboys did. Wyoming doesn’t look great on paper- they’re near the bottom of the MWC in most statistical categories- but they’ve found ways to win games all year. They’ll still need to play out of their minds on defense to keep the score low enough to stay in the game- they’ve scored 30 a few times this year, but not against the likes of Fresno State. Fresno State is favored by 11.
St. Petersburg Bowl
Rutgers (8-4) vs. UCF (8-4), Saturday, 8:00 PM, ESPN: This game is a battle of defensive teams, with Rutgers sitting 12th nationally and 2nd in tackles for a loss, while UCF is 5th in sacks and 11th in TFL. Neither offense has done anything especially remarkable this year. Rutgers is coming in a bit less consistent right now, losing two of their final three, while UCF is on a 3 game win streak and their only loss in the last six games was to Texas, who I hear is pretty good. I can say that UCF’s offense has been a little more creative down the stretch, and it will have to be to have any hope of pulling away from the Scarlet Knights smothering defense. Rutgers is favored by 2.5 or 3.
Side note- I’ll actually be attending the St. Pete bowl with a real-life media credential! If I can swing it, I may try to set up a live blog in conjunction with Last Call or something on Saturday night, assuming they don’t toss me out on my ass when they figure out what a hack I really am.
New Orleans Bowl
Sunday, December 20, 8:30 PM, ESPN: Middle Tennessee State (9-3) vs. Southern Mississippi (7-5)- MTSU is coming off of a record year, while Southern Miss will be disappointed to be back in the New Orleans bowl again (4th trip in 6 seasons). The Blue Raiders are a legitimately good team- top 50 in all the total stat categories on both sides of the ball, and knocked off teams from bigger conferences including Maryland and Memphis. Southern Miss had an up and down year, beating Virginia in the early going but losing three conference games, including a season-ending showdown with East Carolina that could have sent them to the conference title game. Their senior RB, Damien Fletcher, is a bona fide stud, and MTSU will have to shut him down to stay in the game. Somewhat to my surprise, Southern Miss has been installed as a 3.5 point favorite.
Las Vegas Bowl
Tuesday, December 22, 8 PM, ESPN: Oregon State (8-4) vs. BYU (10-2) Speaking of teams that go to the same bowl too often, this is BYU’s 5th consecutive trip to the Las Vegas bowl. It’s not a contractual thing- the bowl could pick somebody else, but they travel well every year, so off they go. They come in ranked #14, and take on the 18th ranked Beavers, who narrowly missed out on their chance to play in the Rose Bowl. Oregon State is a very well balanced team, strong on both sides of the ball, but then of course so is BYU. By all rights, this game should be one of the best of the entire bowl season, not just the first week. Vegas has Oregon State as 2-3 point favorites in this one.
Poinsettia Bowl
Wednesday, December 23, 8 PM, ESPN: Utah (9-3) vs. Cal (8-4) Word came in yesterday that Cal’s electric RB, Jahvid Best, will not play in this game, which takes a bit of the shine off for some. Utah will be looking to pick up their first signature win of the season, having lost all three games this year against ranked opponents. The Bears have had a start & stop season, never getting a long streak going that could have put them at 9 or 10 wins- they beat Stanford in week 12, but then got beat badly by Washington in their final game. Utah will rely on a stout defense, and look to take advantage of Cal’s shaky one- this should be a good matchup of strength vs. strength, especially when Cal has the ball. Cal is favored by 3.5 to 4.
So there’s your first batch of bowl games coming up this week. Next week, we press on with a new batch. For other thoughts, season reviews, coaching watch, and maybe a bit of realignment talk, you can always check in on the daily Fringe site.
Raise a GlassTags: bowl previews, college football pick'em, Football on the Fringe, lowercase
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Munchies
Pam
Go RU!
lowercase
booo! go UCF! I’d say Go Knights but that’s not helpful now, is it?
Somewhat amazingly, the game is apparently sold out. They may be selling bad seats from across the outfield, but the original seats are gone. Won’t be a lot of pre-New Years bowls doing that this year.
Pam
Wow, that’s kind of surprising. I guess $30 to see a local team in a bowl game (even a lame one) is a good draw. You know what though, good for all involved. A big crowd makes the game feel more exciting and important. USF must love seeing these two teams on it’s home turf.
Go Knights! (The Scarlet ones)